Caerphilly by-election: ‘They’ve chosen hope over division’

Rhun ap Iorwerth’s words following his party’s stunning victory in Caerphilly were succinctly endorsed by the graffiti on Reform’s office in the town. There is no doubt that a win for Reform would have poisoned Welsh politics and represented a massive boost to the far right in next year’s Senedd election.

The result is obviously a staggering blow to Keir Starmer. The Labour Party has dominated Welsh politics since the start of the 20th century. It has been the largest party and formed every government throughout the devolution era. If its 11% of the vote was replicated in next year’s Senedd elections, under the new “closed list” voting system, the party could very probably face a total wipe-out.

Welsh Labour’s defeat has its origins in its “dented shield” policy of managing Westminster-imposed austerity over more than two decades. But anger in the Valleys has mounted since Starmer came to power with policies that favour the rich and powerful and show only contempt for deprived working-class communities like Caerphilly.

Plaid’s success shows that Reform can be defeated even in a constituency where polls had indicated they were likely to win. Labour’s strategy of accommodating to the politics of scapegoating and hate failed miserably. Plaid fought a principled anti-racist campaign and called out Reform for its broader anti-working class policies. This resonated with local people who generally resented a right-wing English nationalist anti-worker party bringing fear and division to a community with a proud tradition of social solidarity and trade union activism.

Plaid pulled out all the stops, putting money and resources into the campaign. Party leaders and activists were out campaigning tirelessly, and support from local anti-racist groups was welcomed.

As with all by-elections, there were specific local factors at work. Lindsay Whittle has been campaigning for Plaid in the town for over 50 years, is well respected, and from a working-class background. Mike Jenkins, a local republican socialist activist and editor of the Red Poets, explained:

“I think Lindsay’s character and background was a big factor on Thursday. He’s well-known and a local working class fella and this is important in the Valleys. No doubt there was tactical voting, but that has been over-emphasised.”

Labour’s centralised campaign management backfired massively. Richard Tunnicliffe, their imposed candidate, was regarded by most local Labour activists as a “Johnny-come-lately”. He was forced on the constituency against the wishes of the local party after the untimely death of a well-respected local politician with strong roots in the area. As a result the Labour council leader resigned and joined Plaid Cymru, calling Starmer’s party “a busted flush”!

Nevertheless, Labour’s defeat and Plaid’s success is a real boost for the pro-independence left – especially as it comes at a time when support for independence in Wales is on the rise again.

The most recent polling shows 41% in favour of an independent Wales, with a massive 72% of younger voters (aged 25–34) saying they would vote Yes. This is not a majority, but it is an important development if we consider the longer-term trend. At the time of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, only 12% of the Welsh electorate supported independence with 72% opposing it.

There is of course no cause for complacency on the left. As far as next year’s election is concerned, polls show that Reform’s politics do still resonate in working-class communities across Wales. A recent survey of Senedd voting intentions for Nation.Cymru has Reform on 30%, 8 points above Plaid. Whilst this would be unlikely to usher in a Reform government, it would become the largest party with 37 seats in the expanded 90-seat Senedd. Moreover, the poll had Reform leading in North, Mid and South Wales.

Plaid threw everything they could into Caerphilly but they have neither the activist base nor the resources to replicate this in every constituency. Electoral agreements will be needed to ensure a Reform defeat next year. But achieving these will be more difficult under a new Senedd electoral system.

Tactical voting, as clearly occurred in Caerphilly, will be far more complex under the new closed list system. It will require much greater levels of co-ordination, voter analysis, inter-party co-operation and trust to agree how to maximise an anti-racist and progressive pro-independence vote within each constituency. As of yet, there is little sign of co-operation between the Greens and Plaid. Your Party in Cymru might also stand candidates, complicating things still further.

These are daunting challenges for the radical left. Unity will be vital. There is a desperate need for a non-sectarian cross-party platform with a clear programme that puts people, planet and peace before profit. Republican socialists organised around the Cymru’n Codi (Cymru Rising) network have been helping to build such a platform for some time. The Caerphilly by-election, against a background of rising support for independence, provides a major opportunity to take this work further.

Cymru’n Codi had initially considered standing candidates next year itself. But given the emergence of YP in Cymru and the implications of the new electoral system, it decided to concentrate on winning support for ecosocialist and republican demands and actions across the parties of the pro-independence left and within community groups, campaigns and social movements, etc.

It is well placed to do this, with almost 200 members including members in Plaid Cymru, the Green Party, various campaigns within local communities, and social movements (including Palestine solidarity, Black Lives Matter, and Stand Up To Racism) as well as non-aligned socialists and former Labour leftists.

Cymru n’Codi had developed its programme of demands and actions over a 12-month period, democratically and collectively within its membership and openly within the wider pro-independence left. Integral to the programme is a “republicanism from below” political strategy that clearly links the achievement of an ecosocialist transformation in Wales to the need to break up the quasi-democratic structure of the British state and build an independent Cymru republic.

Cymru n’Codi is currently trying to intervene in the pre-election debates within pro-independence parties, particularly Plaid and the Greens where they already have members. Having a transitional programme and strategy in place provides a platform for such intervention. However, the organisation has a much wider perspective too. A republican socialist strategy is not just about intervening in elections.

The Caerphilly result suggests that a first Plaid government is a clear possibility next year. However, the party under its new leader has already moved to the right politically. It has dropped its 2021 pledge to hold an independence referendum within first five years of coming to power. Independence will effectively be consigned to the backburner.

Plaid’s strategy in government is to focus on “increasing devolved powers” and demonstrating “competence” – a rightward trajectory that would squander the momentum generated by the Caerphilly result. This trajectory, as in Scotland, would be likely to sow disillusion and division amongst the wider independence movement.

In such circumstances, a coherent alternative republican and ecosocialist vision of an independent Cymru well embedded across the independence movement, in parties, communities and trade unions will be more important than ever.

Whilst Caerphilly has amplified the need to widen the reach of republican ecosocialist politics in Cymru, the emergence of Your Party, claiming 30,000 members, provides an important opportunity to do so. Similar discussions to those within Scotland’s Republican Socialist Platform (RSP) are going on in Cymru’n Codi regarding YP. Consequently members have been engaging with the new party within proto-branches and more recently at the all-Wales YP gathering in Merthyr.

Given the conflicting signals coming from some of the leading figures and the continued internal factionalism, it is certainly wise to approach any intervention cautiously. However, reports from members attending YP events suggest that there is considerable, though clearly not yet majority, support for a pro-independence republican strategy and for a separate party in Cymru.

How this will play out is unclear and, whilst sectarianism on the left in Cymru is less toxic than in Scotland, the “traditional” far left are wasting no time in pursuing their agendas within YP despite paying lip-service to grassroots democracy.

Finally then, the result in Caerphilly really does provide hope! It shows that Reform are not invincible, even in deprived working-class areas that they have targeted. But the left in Cymru have no grounds for complacency. Reform will learn from their experience and has deep pockets when it comes to fighting elections. Plaid have limited resources and their activists will struggle to cover 16 large new constituencies.

Unity across the pro-independence left is urgent. A non-sectarian republican socialist platform, with a coherent ecosocialist programme and a democratic republican vision of independence to achieve it, has emerged. Despite its small numbers it is beginning to have a wider influence. It can be become a significant force in the struggles ahead to deliver more Caerphillys.